Start Chase McLaughlin over Nick Folk — Week 1 Start/Sit Verdict

Start McLaughlin — the consensus rank and game script edges are too wide to ignore.

Chase McLaughlin is the higher consensus play (K14 to K21) and plays in the better game script (23.5 implied team points to 19.8). No signal favors Folk this week. The gap is comfortable.

Chase McLaughlin

K14TBvs CIN

8.48.48.4 Projected Points

Start· medium

Nick Folk

K21ATLvs PIT

7.87.87.8 Projected Points

Toss-Up

Why Chase McLaughlin

Start· medium

Starting placekicker with big-leg range and a 65-yard career long. Reliable from distance, though his 84.9% career accuracy sits around league average.

K14 undersells him: 1.4 red-zone stalls per game feed steady tries, 84% accuracy and seven 50-plus makes give him range most kickers can't match.

2.0 FG tries projected, right at the 2.0 league median this week.
TB's offense stalls in the red zone 1.4 times a game (2025) — that's where kicker points come from.
Vegas has TB at 23.5 points as 3.5-point dogs.
84% on field goals (2025), with a 50-plus make in 7 games.

The call

Tampa stalls in the red zone 1.4 times per game, which is exactly the profile that turns a 23.5 implied total into FG attempts rather than touchdown-only extra points — the sheet projects 2.0 attempts plus 2.1 extra points.
McLaughlin is 32-of-38 (84%) with a make from 50-plus in 7 games and a long of 65, so drives that stall near midfield still convert into points for you — that's real upside above his 8.4 projection.
Locked in as PK1 with no injury designation in a 3.5-point game, meaning the script stays competitive and the offense keeps kicking rather than sitting on a blowout lead.
Only caution is the open roof with no forecast yet; if game-day wind spikes, a dome kicker on the waiver wire becomes the safer play.

Why Nick Folk

Toss-Up

Veteran starting kicker. Reliable accuracy and long-track-record consistency in the field-goal role.

Toss-up — K21 by consensus, projects K22 this week: 1.2 red-zone stalls a game, and 7.8 pts projected vs PIT.

2.0 FG tries projected, right at the 2.0 league median this week.
ATL's offense stalls in the red zone 1.2 times a game (2025) — that's where kicker points come from.
Vegas has ATL at 19.8 points as 3-point dogs.
97% on field goals (2025), with a 50-plus make in 6 games.

Head-to-head stats

Metric	Chase McLaughlin	Nick Folk
Projected points	8.48.48.4	7.87.87.8
Consensus rank	K14	K21
Projected FG attempts	2.0	2.0
Red-zone stalls / game	1.4(2025)	1.2(2025)
Implied total · spread	23.5+3.5	19.8+3.0
Field-goal %	84.2%(2025)	96.6%(2025)
Depth chart	K1	K1