Dallas Goedert or Isaiah Likely: Who Should You Start?

The call

• Role is not in question: 85% snap share and a 20% target share across 15 games mean he's on the field and involved on every meaningful drive.
• Philadelphia's 26.0 implied total with a -5.5 spread points to a productive, red-zone-heavy afternoon, where Goedert has always been a factor.
• Washington grades 21 of 32 in DvP composite vs tight ends — a slightly favorable draw, though the 0-game sample means it shouldn't drive the call on its own.
• TE12 consensus with 10.9 projected points is starter territory at a thin position; no injury designation removes the usual Goedert availability worry.

The call

• Likely has commanded a 14% target share across 11 games — elite-adjacent volume for the position — while playing 59% of snaps as the listed TE, so the floor comes from role, not touchdown luck.
• The opponent DvP composite (10 of 32) reads mildly unfriendly, but it's built on a 0-game sample with 0.00 confidence, so it shouldn't override a stable target profile.
• A 1.5-point spread with a 23.5 implied team total points to a competitive script where Baltimore keeps throwing in the middle of the field rather than shutting it down early.
• Risk is the ceiling, not the floor: 9.4 projected points and a TE14 rank mean he's a start over replacement, but he needs a red-zone look to win your week.