Keaton Mitchell or Tyler Allgeier: Who Should You Start?
2026 Week 1 · deterministic head-to-head · Verdicts based on PPR scoring.
Start Allgeier — the availability and projection edges are too wide to ignore.
Tyler Allgeier is the healthier side of this call (Mitchell carries a Questionable tag) and projects 6.8 to Mitchell's 6.2. Mitchell's edge is the game script, 28.5 implied points to 17.0. The gap is narrow.
In standard scoring this is a coin flip.
Keaton Mitchell
RB46LACvs ARI
5.15.66.2 Projected Points
Sit
Tyler Allgeier
RB45ARIvs LAC
5.46.16.8 Projected Points
Sit
Why Keaton Mitchell
SitRB2 and change-of-pace back. Elite home-run speed used as a complementary explosive-play threat.
Sit — RB46 consensus, projects RB49 this week: ARI is the 7th-softest matchup vs RBs, 28.5 implied team total.
- Carries a Questionable tag — usually plays, but monitor the final report.
- ARI ranks 26 of 32 against RBs (one of the softer matchups, 0-game sample).
- Vegas implies 28.5 team points as 11.5-point favorites.
- Listed RB on the latest depth chart with a 18% snap share in 2025.
Why Tyler Allgeier
SitPower back splitting a committee backfield. Compact downhill runner and short-yardage/goal-line finisher with red-zone scoring value.
Sit — RB45 consensus, projects RB47 this week: LAC is the 8th-toughest matchup vs RBs, 17.0 implied team total caps the ceiling.
- LAC ranks 8 of 32 against RBs (one of the tougher matchups, 0-game sample).
- Vegas implies 17.0 team points as 11.5-point underdogs.
- Listed RB on the latest depth chart with a 30% snap share in 2025.
Head-to-head stats
| Metric | Keaton Mitchell | Tyler Allgeier |
|---|---|---|
| Projected points | 5.15.66.2 | 5.46.16.8 |
| Consensus rank | RB46 | RB45 |
| Opponent vs position | ARI · 26 of 320-game sample | LAC · 8 of 320-game sample |
| Rushing Yards | 29 of 32 | 9 of 32 |
| Rushing TDs | 29 of 32 | 12 of 32 |
| Rushing Attempts | 26 of 32 | 6 of 32 |
| Receptions | 18 of 32 | 6 of 32 |
| Receiving Yards | 24 of 32 | 7 of 32 |
| Anytime TD | 31 of 32 | 6 of 32 |
| Target share | 4%(2025) | 3%(2025) |
| Reception share | 4%(2025) | 4%(2025) |
| Implied total · spread | 28.5-11.5 | 17.0+11.5 |
| Depth chart | RB2 | RB2 |
| Snap share | 18%(2025) | 30%(2025) |
| Injury designation | Questionable | — |
Signal breakdown
- 6.2 vs 6.8 projected PPR pointsTyler Allgeier +
- Rank 46 vs 45Tyler Allgeier +
- Opponent DvP rank 26 vs 8 (32 = softest)even
- Implied 28.5 vs 17.0 team pointsKeaton Mitchell +
- Questionable vs no designationTyler Allgeier +
- 18% vs 30% snap shareTyler Allgeier +
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