Start Woody Marks over Tyler Allgeier — Week 1 Start/Sit Verdict

Start Marks — the game script and projection edges are too wide to ignore.

Woody Marks plays in the better game script (22.0 implied team points to 17.0) and projects 8.3 to Allgeier's 6.8. No signal favors Allgeier this week. The gap is comfortable.

Tyler Allgeier

RB45ARIvs LAC

5.46.16.8 Projected Points

Sit

Woody Marks

RB44HOUvs BUF

6.87.58.3 Projected Points

Toss-Up

Why Tyler Allgeier

Sit

Power back splitting a committee backfield. Compact downhill runner and short-yardage/goal-line finisher with red-zone scoring value.

Sit — RB45 consensus, projects RB47 this week: LAC is the 8th-toughest matchup vs RBs, 17.0 implied team total caps the ceiling.

LAC ranks 8 of 32 against RBs (one of the tougher matchups, 0-game sample).
Vegas implies 17.0 team points as 11.5-point underdogs.
Listed RB on the latest depth chart with a 30% snap share in 2025.

Why Woody Marks

Toss-Up

RB2 behind David Montgomery. Between-the-tackles committee back who carried 196 times for 703 yards as a rookie with light pass-game usage.

Toss-up — RB44 consensus, projects RB43 this week: 7% target share in 2025, 8.3 PPR projected vs BUF.

BUF ranks 20 of 32 against RBs (a middle-of-the-road matchup, 0-game sample).
Vegas implies 22.0 team points as 1.5-point underdogs.
Listed RB on the latest depth chart with a 52% snap share in 2025.

Head-to-head stats

Metric	Tyler Allgeier	Woody Marks
Projected points	5.46.16.8	6.87.58.3
Consensus rank	RB45	RB44
Opponent vs position	LAC · 8 of 320-game sample	BUF · 20 of 320-game sample
Rushing Yards	9 of 32	27 of 32
Rushing TDs	12 of 32	32 of 32
Rushing Attempts	6 of 32	16 of 32
Receptions	6 of 32	10 of 32
Receiving Yards	7 of 32	6 of 32
Anytime TD	6 of 32	26 of 32
Target share	3%(2025)	7%(2025)
Reception share	4%(2025)	7%(2025)
Implied total · spread	17.0+11.5	22.0+1.5
Depth chart	RB2	RB2
Snap share	30%(2025)	52%(2025)