Harrison Mevis or Ka'imi Fairbairn: Toss-Up — Week 1 Start/Sit Verdict

Too close to call — the edges cancel out.

Harrison Mevis and Ka'imi Fairbairn grade out even this week. Mevis's best edge is the game script (25.8 implied points to 22.0), Fairbairn's best edge is the consensus rank (K3 to K7) — and they cancel out. Start whichever player's game you trust more this week.

Harrison Mevis

K7LARvs SF

9.49.49.4 Projected Points

Start

Ka'imi Fairbairn

K3HOUvs BUF

9.89.89.8 Projected Points

Start

Why Harrison Mevis

Start

Starting K with strong leg. Big-distance range on field goals; limited career sample.

Start — K7 by consensus, projects K4 this week: 1.6 red-zone stalls a game, and 9.4 pts projected vs SF.

2.0 FG tries projected, just over the 2.0 league median this week.
LAR's offense stalls in the red zone 1.6 times a game (2025) — that's where kicker points come from.
Vegas has LAR at 25.8 points as 3-point favorites.
92% on field goals (2025), with a 50-plus make in 1 game.

Why Ka'imi Fairbairn

Start

Veteran starting K. Reliable long-range leg and established accuracy.

Start — K3 consensus and projection: 2.4 FG tries projected, above the 2.0 median, and 1.8 red-zone stalls a game.

2.4 FG tries projected, above the 2.0 league median this week.
HOU's offense stalls in the red zone 1.8 times a game (2025) — that's where kicker points come from.
Vegas has HOU at 22 points as 1.5-point dogs.
92% on field goals (2025), with a 50-plus make in 6 games.

Head-to-head stats

Metric	Harrison Mevis	Ka'imi Fairbairn
Projected points	9.49.49.4	9.89.89.8
Consensus rank	K7	K3
Projected FG attempts	2.0	2.4
Red-zone stalls / game	1.6(2025)	1.8(2025)
Implied total · spread	25.8-3.0	22.0+1.5
Field-goal %	92.3%(2025)	91.7%(2025)
Depth chart	K1	K1