Brandon Aubrey or Ka'imi Fairbairn: Toss-Up — Week 1 Start/Sit Verdict

Too close to call — the edges cancel out.

Brandon Aubrey and Ka'imi Fairbairn grade out even this week. Aubrey's best edge is the game script (25.0 implied points to 22.0), Fairbairn's best edge is red-zone opportunity (1.8 to 1.6 stalls per game) — and they cancel out. Start whichever player's game you trust more this week.

Brandon Aubrey

K1DALvs NYG

9.99.99.9 Projected Points

Start

Ka'imi Fairbairn

K3HOUvs BUF

9.89.89.8 Projected Points

Start

Why Brandon Aubrey

Start

Starting K with elite leg strength. Reliable from extreme distance and on kickoffs.

Start — K1 by consensus, projects K2 this week: 2.3 FG tries projected, above the 2.0 median, and 1.6 red-zone stalls a game.

2.3 FG tries projected, above the 2.0 league median this week.
DAL's offense stalls in the red zone 1.6 times a game (2025) — that's where kicker points come from.
Vegas has DAL at 25 points as 1.5-point favorites.
86% on field goals (2025), with a 50-plus make in 7 games.

Why Ka'imi Fairbairn

Start

Veteran starting K. Reliable long-range leg and established accuracy.

Start — K3 consensus and projection: 2.4 FG tries projected, above the 2.0 median, and 1.8 red-zone stalls a game.

2.4 FG tries projected, above the 2.0 league median this week.
HOU's offense stalls in the red zone 1.8 times a game (2025) — that's where kicker points come from.
Vegas has HOU at 22 points as 1.5-point dogs.
92% on field goals (2025), with a 50-plus make in 6 games.

Head-to-head stats

Metric	Brandon Aubrey	Ka'imi Fairbairn
Projected points	9.99.99.9	9.89.89.8
Consensus rank	K1	K3
Projected FG attempts	2.3	2.4
Red-zone stalls / game	1.6(2025)	1.8(2025)
Implied total · spread	25.0-1.5	22.0+1.5
Field-goal %	85.7%(2025)	91.7%(2025)
Depth chart	K1	K1