Juwan Johnson or Mark Andrews: Who Should You Start?

The call

• An 18% target share is genuine TE1 usage — he's the clear top option at the position in this offense with a 75% snap share, so his floor isn't tied to a scheme quirk or a matchup edge.
• Saints are 7-point underdogs with a 20.8 implied total; trailing script means more dropbacks and more short-to-intermediate work for the tight end, which is exactly where Johnson eats in PPR.
• The DvP composite (19 of 32) comes off a 0-game sample with 0.00 confidence, so there's no real matchup signal here either way — this call rides on role, and the role is locked in.
• Risk is the low team total: 8.8 projected points and TE13 means he's barely ahead of the streamer pile, so a red-zone-free afternoon caps him near 5-6. If your bench holds a TE with a top-10 matchup, this is closer than the verdict suggests.

The call

• A 17% target share on 62% of snaps is a genuine TE1 workload, and Andrews' value is concentrated near the goal line, where Baltimore's 26.5 implied total gives him multiple scoring looks.
• Vegas has the Ravens as 3.5-point favorites with a healthy team total — the neutral-to-positive script keeps the offense balanced instead of pass-chasing away from the tight end.
• The Colts grade 20 of 32 vs the position, a mild edge, but the 0-game sample means it shouldn't move the needle either way.
• Risk is the usual Andrews boom-bust: 10.1 projected points is TE11 territory, so a touchdown-less afternoon leaves him near replacement level — you're starting him for the ceiling.