Start Ka'imi Fairbairn over Cam Little — Week 1 Start/Sit Verdict

Start Fairbairn — the consensus rank and projection edges are too wide to ignore.

Ka'imi Fairbairn is the higher consensus play (K3 to K6) and projects 9.8 to Little's 8.8. Little's edge is the game script, 24.0 implied points to 22.0. The gap is narrow.

Cam Little

K6JAXvs CLE

8.88.88.8 Projected Points

Start

Ka'imi Fairbairn

K3HOUvs BUF

9.89.89.8 Projected Points

Start

Why Cam Little

Start

Starting K with elite leg strength. Proven range well beyond 55 yards.

Start — K6 by consensus, projects K7 this week: 1.6 red-zone stalls a game, and 8.8 pts projected vs CLE.

2.1 FG tries projected, just over the 2.0 league median this week.
JAX's offense stalls in the red zone 1.6 times a game (2025) — that's where kicker points come from.
Vegas has JAX at 24 points as 7.5-point favorites.
88% on field goals (2025), with a 50-plus make in 6 games.

Why Ka'imi Fairbairn

Start

Veteran starting K. Reliable long-range leg and established accuracy.

Start — K3 consensus and projection: 2.4 FG tries projected, above the 2.0 median, and 1.8 red-zone stalls a game.

2.4 FG tries projected, above the 2.0 league median this week.
HOU's offense stalls in the red zone 1.8 times a game (2025) — that's where kicker points come from.
Vegas has HOU at 22 points as 1.5-point dogs.
92% on field goals (2025), with a 50-plus make in 6 games.

Head-to-head stats

Metric	Cam Little	Ka'imi Fairbairn
Projected points	8.88.88.8	9.89.89.8
Consensus rank	K6	K3
Projected FG attempts	2.1	2.4
Red-zone stalls / game	1.6(2025)	1.8(2025)
Implied total · spread	24.0-7.5	22.0+1.5
Field-goal %	88.2%(2025)	91.7%(2025)
Depth chart	K1	K1