Mark Andrews or T.J. Hockenson: Who Should You Start?

The call

• A 17% target share on 62% of snaps is a genuine TE1 workload, and Andrews' value is concentrated near the goal line, where Baltimore's 26.5 implied total gives him multiple scoring looks.
• Vegas has the Ravens as 3.5-point favorites with a healthy team total — the neutral-to-positive script keeps the offense balanced instead of pass-chasing away from the tight end.
• The Colts grade 20 of 32 vs the position, a mild edge, but the 0-game sample means it shouldn't move the needle either way.
• Risk is the usual Andrews boom-bust: 10.1 projected points is TE11 territory, so a touchdown-less afternoon leaves him near replacement level — you're starting him for the ceiling.

The call

• Role is locked in — 78% of snaps and a 16% target share over 15 games means he's a primary read regardless of matchup.
• A 1.5-point spread and 21.5 implied team total point to a competitive script where Minnesota keeps throwing rather than grinding out a lead.
• The GB matchup grades 12 of 32 (tougher half), and the TE15 consensus rank means this is a floor play, not a ceiling one — but 9.2 PPR points beats a typical replacement TE.
• Only real risk is touchdown dependency; if you're holding a top-10 TE with a softer draw, that's the swap.