Start Justice Hill over Jonah Coleman — Week 1 Start/Sit Verdict

Start Hill — the projection and game script edges are too wide to ignore.

Justice Hill projects 7.2 to Coleman's 4.1 and plays in the better game script (26.5 implied team points to 20.0). No signal favors Coleman this week. The gap is wide.

Jonah Coleman

RB50DENvs KC

3.13.64.1 Projected Points

Sit

Justice Hill

RB47BALvs IND

4.86.07.2 Projected Points

Toss-Up

Why Jonah Coleman

Sit

Rookie RB3 and depth back. Compact, physical runner with no NFL regular-season sample yet.

Sit — RB50 consensus, projects RB60 this week: KC is the 9th-toughest matchup vs RBs, 4.1 PPR projected vs KC.

KC ranks 9 of 32 against RBs (one of the tougher matchups, 0-game sample).
Vegas implies 20.0 team points as 2.5-point underdogs.
Listed RB on the latest depth chart.

Why Justice Hill

Toss-Up

Change-of-pace RB2 and passing-down back. Receiving chops and pass protection in third-down packages.

Toss-up — RB47 consensus, projects RB45 this week: 26.5 implied team total, 11% target share in 2025.

IND ranks 12 of 32 against RBs (a middle-of-the-road matchup, 0-game sample).
Vegas implies 26.5 team points as 3.5-point favorites.
Listed RB on the latest depth chart with a 37% snap share in 2025.

Head-to-head stats

Metric	Jonah Coleman	Justice Hill
Projected points	3.13.64.1	4.86.07.2
Consensus rank	RB50	RB47
Opponent vs position	KC · 9 of 320-game sample	IND · 12 of 320-game sample
Rushing Yards	8 of 32	10 of 32
Rushing TDs	4 of 32	12 of 32
Rushing Attempts	10 of 32	18 of 32
Receptions	12 of 32	10 of 32
Receiving Yards	14 of 32	4 of 32
Anytime TD	6 of 32	16 of 32
Target share	—	11%(2025)
Reception share	—	13%(2025)
Implied total · spread	20.0+2.5	26.5-3.5
Depth chart	RB3	RB2
Snap share	—	37%(2025)