Start Jaylen Warren over Rhamondre Stevenson — Week 1 Start/Sit Verdict

Start Warren — the projection and consensus rank edges are too wide to ignore.

Jaylen Warren projects 12.6 to Stevenson's 10.5 and is the higher consensus play (RB24 to RB31). Stevenson's edge is snap share, 59% to 51%. The gap is comfortable.

Jaylen Warren

RB24PITvs ATL

9.911.312.6 Projected Points

Start· medium

Rhamondre Stevenson

RB31NEvs SEA

8.09.210.5 Projected Points

Toss-Up· medium

Why Jaylen Warren

Start· medium

RB1 and lead back. Compact, contact-balance runner with reliable third-down pass-protection and receiving work.

12.6 projected with a 51% snap share and 9% target share; 3-point favorite script keeps Warren busy as a PPR-friendly flex.

ATL ranks 13 of 32 against RBs (a middle-of-the-road matchup, 0-game sample).
Vegas implies 22.8 team points as 3.0-point favorites.
Listed RB on the latest depth chart with a 51% snap share in 2025.

The call

Warren's 51% snap share and 9% target share give him a real passing-down floor, which is exactly what props up an RB29 into flex-startable territory in PPR.
Pittsburgh is a 3-point favorite with a 22.8 implied total — a positive-script projection that supports fourth-quarter carries rather than pass-script abandonment.
The Atlanta matchup grades middle-of-the-road (13 of 32) and the sample confidence is 0.00, so there's nothing in the defensive profile to fade him for.
Risk is the committee: at just over half the snaps he needs the receiving work to hit 12.6, and a game that gets away early caps the touchdown equity.

Why Rhamondre Stevenson

Toss-Up· medium

RB1 and lead back. Physical between-the-tackles runner with reliable receiving-game involvement.

RB27 at 10.5 projected with a 59% snap share, but a top-third-toughest matchup (12 of 32) and a 20.5 implied total cap the ceiling.

SEA ranks 12 of 32 against RBs (a middle-of-the-road matchup, 0-game sample).
Vegas implies 20.5 team points as 3.5-point underdogs.
Listed RB on the latest depth chart with a 59% snap share in 2025.

The call

Volume is real — 59% snap share over 14 games as the listed RB means he'll get his touches regardless of script, which is the floor case for a flex play.
The matchup cuts against him: Seattle grades 12 of 32 in DvP composite (32 = softest), so this is a top-third-tough run funnel, and a 20.5 implied total with New England a 3.5-point underdog trims the touchdown equity.
A 9% target share means he's not a PPR-safe pass-game outlet, so if the run lanes close there's no receiving floor to bail out the box score.
Tip it toward start if you're thin at RB and need the 12-plus touch floor; sit him for any back with a softer matchup or a real passing-game role.

Head-to-head stats

Metric	Jaylen Warren	Rhamondre Stevenson
Projected points	9.911.312.6	8.09.210.5
Consensus rank	RB24	RB31
Opponent vs position	ATL · 13 of 320-game sample	SEA · 12 of 320-game sample
Rushing Yards	20 of 32	3 of 32
Rushing TDs	4 of 32	1 of 32
Rushing Attempts	19 of 32	9 of 32
Receptions	12 of 32	32 of 32
Receiving Yards	15 of 32	27 of 32
Anytime TD	9 of 32	1 of 32
Target share	9%(2025)	9%(2025)
Reception share	12%(2025)	11%(2025)
Implied total · spread	22.8-3.0	20.5+3.5
Depth chart	RB1	RB1
Snap share	51%(2025)	59%(2025)
Start/Sit record	—	0–0+1 toss-up