Start Jake Tonges over John Bates — Week 1 Start/Sit Verdict

Start Tonges — the matchup and availability edges are too wide to ignore.

Jake Tonges draws the softer matchup (LAR ranks 17 of 32 against TEs; PHI ranks 2) and is the healthier side of this call (Bates carries a Questionable tag). Bates's edge is snap share, 55% to 52%. The gap is wide.

Jake Tonges

TE26SFvs LAR

1.21.62.1 Projected Points

Sit· high

John Bates

TEWSHvs PHI

1.11.51.9 Projected Points

Sit

Why Jake Tonges

Sit· high

TE2 with red-zone productivity. Reliable inline blocker who converted heavy snaps into scoring targets.

TE26 with a 2.1-point projection — a 52% snap share and 14% target share haven't turned into usable TE production against a middling LAR matchup.

LAR ranks 17 of 32 against TEs (a middle-of-the-road matchup, 17-game sample).
Vegas implies 22.8 team points as 3.0-point underdogs.
Listed TE on the latest depth chart with a 52% snap share in 2025.

The call

The projection is the story: 2.1 PPR points and a TE26 consensus rank put him well below any startable tight end in a 12-team league.
He's on the field for just 52% of snaps with a 14% target share — a rotational role that produces touchdown-or-bust weeks, not a floor you can trust.
The LAR matchup grades middle of the pack (17 of 32) and the 0-game sample carries zero confidence, so there's no matchup edge to bet on here.
At a 22.8 implied total with a 3.0 spread, this isn't a shootout script that would force volume his way.

Why John Bates

Sit

TE2 in blocking role. In-line grinder used in heavy sets and short-yardage.

Sit — projects TE59 this week: PHI is the 2nd-toughest matchup vs TEs, 7% target share in 2025.

Carries a Questionable tag — usually plays, but monitor the final report.
PHI ranks 2 of 32 against TEs (one of the tougher matchups, 17-game sample).
Vegas implies 20.5 team points as 5.5-point underdogs.
Listed TE on the latest depth chart with a 55% snap share in 2025.

Head-to-head stats

Metric	Jake Tonges	John Bates
Projected points	1.21.62.1	1.11.51.9
Consensus rank	TE26	—
Opponent vs position	LAR · 17 of 3217-game sample	PHI · 2 of 3217-game sample
Receptions	22 of 32	2 of 32
Receiving Yards	12 of 32	1 of 32
Receiving TDs	9 of 32	1 of 32
Targets	22 of 32	6 of 32
Anytime TD	20 of 32	1 of 32
Target share	14%(2025)	7%(2025)
Reception share	15%(2025)	7%(2025)
Implied total · spread	22.8+3.0	20.5+5.5
Depth chart	TE2	TE2
Snap share	52%(2025)	55%(2025)
Injury designation	—	Questionable