Start Charlie Kolar over Jake Tonges — Week 1 Start/Sit Verdict

Same TE26 Tag, Different Reasons You Shouldn't Start Either

Kolar's advantage isn't about anything he does with the ball — it's that the Chargers are set up to blow Arizona out, and even a blocking-first tight end can occasionally benefit from that kind of script. Tonges is the better football player in this pairing, seeing real red-zone work and far more snaps, but San Francisco isn't favored to score much against the Rams, which caps his ceiling despite the involvement. Both project outside the top 50 tight ends this week, so the gap the model found is thin and mostly reflects team context rather than player quality. If you're desperate at the position, Kolar's blowout-shaped game gives him a marginally safer floor, but this is bench-only for both.

What flips it: A red-zone target finding Tonges, or Kolar's target share ticking up off its 5% floor, flips this.

AI editor

Charlie Kolar

TE26LACvs ARI

1.41.82.3 Projected Points

Sit· high

Jake Tonges

TE26SFvs LAR

1.21.62.1 Projected Points

Sit· high

Why Charlie Kolar

Sit· high

TE1 in a blocking-first role. Large-frame in-line piece with limited target volume.

Kolar is a 40% snap, 5% target-share TE2 with a 2.3-point projection — TE26 is below any startable line in 12-team PPR.

A lopsided home script means more offensive snaps overall, even if most go to blocking downs.
Garbage-time possessions in a big win are the one path to a stray target for a low-usage tight end.

The call

The usage is the whole story: 40% snap share and a 5% target share across 13 games means he's a blocking-first TE, not a pass-game piece.
A 2.3-point consensus projection at TE26 sits well under replacement level — nearly any streaming TE offers a higher floor and ceiling.
The DvP composite ranks ARI 27 of 32 (softest end), but it's a 0-game sample with 0.00 confidence, so there's no matchup edge to lean on.
The 28.5 implied total and -11.5 spread point to a run-heavy, ball-control second half, which further caps his target volume rather than boosting it.

Why Jake Tonges

Sit· high

TE2 with red-zone productivity. Reliable inline blocker who converted heavy snaps into scoring targets.

TE26 with a 2.1-point projection — a 52% snap share and 14% target share haven't turned into usable TE production against a middling LAR matchup.

His red-zone role and real target share make him the more talented streamer if San Francisco schemes him a look.
A tighter game script against the Rams could mean more competitive-snap opportunities than Kolar sees in a rout.

The call

The projection is the story: 2.1 PPR points and a TE26 consensus rank put him well below any startable tight end in a 12-team league.
He's on the field for just 52% of snaps with a 14% target share — a rotational role that produces touchdown-or-bust weeks, not a floor you can trust.
The LAR matchup grades middle of the pack (17 of 32) and the 0-game sample carries zero confidence, so there's no matchup edge to bet on here.
At a 22.8 implied total with a 3.0 spread, this isn't a shootout script that would force volume his way.

Head-to-head stats

Metric	Charlie Kolar	Jake Tonges
Projected points	1.41.82.3	1.21.62.1
Consensus rank	TE26	TE26
Opponent vs position	ARI · 27 of 320-game sample	LAR · 17 of 320-game sample
Receptions	30 of 32	22 of 32
Receiving Yards	30 of 32	12 of 32
Receiving TDs	26 of 32	9 of 32
Targets	24 of 32	22 of 32
Anytime TD	26 of 32	20 of 32
Target share	5%(2025)	14%(2025)
Reception share	5%(2025)	15%(2025)
Implied total · spread	28.5-11.5	22.8+3.0
Depth chart	TE1	TE2
Snap share	40%(2025)	52%(2025)