Start Charlie Kolar over John Bates — Week 1 Start/Sit Verdict

Start Kolar — the matchup and availability edges are too wide to ignore.

Charlie Kolar draws the softer matchup (ARI ranks 27 of 32 against TEs; PHI ranks 2) and is the healthier side of this call (Bates carries a Questionable tag). Bates's edge is snap share, 55% to 40%. The gap is wide.

Charlie Kolar

TE26LACvs ARI

1.41.82.3 Projected Points

Sit· high

John Bates

TEWSHvs PHI

1.11.51.9 Projected Points

Sit

Why Charlie Kolar

Sit· high

TE1 in a blocking-first role. Large-frame in-line piece with limited target volume.

Kolar is a 40% snap, 5% target-share TE2 with a 2.3-point projection — TE26 is below any startable line in 12-team PPR.

ARI ranks 27 of 32 against TEs (one of the softer matchups, 17-game sample).
Vegas implies 28.5 team points as 11.5-point favorites.
Listed TE on the latest depth chart with a 40% snap share in 2025.

The call

The usage is the whole story: 40% snap share and a 5% target share across 13 games means he's a blocking-first TE, not a pass-game piece.
A 2.3-point consensus projection at TE26 sits well under replacement level — nearly any streaming TE offers a higher floor and ceiling.
The DvP composite ranks ARI 27 of 32 (softest end), but it's a 0-game sample with 0.00 confidence, so there's no matchup edge to lean on.
The 28.5 implied total and -11.5 spread point to a run-heavy, ball-control second half, which further caps his target volume rather than boosting it.

Why John Bates

Sit

TE2 in blocking role. In-line grinder used in heavy sets and short-yardage.

Sit — projects TE59 this week: PHI is the 2nd-toughest matchup vs TEs, 7% target share in 2025.

Carries a Questionable tag — usually plays, but monitor the final report.
PHI ranks 2 of 32 against TEs (one of the tougher matchups, 17-game sample).
Vegas implies 20.5 team points as 5.5-point underdogs.
Listed TE on the latest depth chart with a 55% snap share in 2025.

Head-to-head stats

Metric	Charlie Kolar	John Bates
Projected points	1.41.82.3	1.11.51.9
Consensus rank	TE26	—
Opponent vs position	ARI · 27 of 3217-game sample	PHI · 2 of 3217-game sample
Receptions	30 of 32	2 of 32
Receiving Yards	30 of 32	1 of 32
Receiving TDs	26 of 32	1 of 32
Targets	24 of 32	6 of 32
Anytime TD	26 of 32	1 of 32
Target share	5%(2025)	7%(2025)
Reception share	5%(2025)	7%(2025)
Implied total · spread	28.5-11.5	20.5+5.5
Depth chart	TE1	TE2
Snap share	40%(2025)	55%(2025)
Injury designation	—	Questionable