Start Colts D/ST over Commanders D/ST — Week 1 Start/Sit Verdict

Start the Colts — the opponent giveaway and lineup-share edges are too wide to ignore.

Colts D/ST faces the more giveaway-prone offense (2.6 sacks and 1.4 turnovers allowed per game to 2.3 and 0.9) and is started in more leagues (started rank 27 to 29). the Commanders's edge is the projection, 3.5 to 3.0. The gap is comfortable.

Colts D/ST

D/STINDvs BAL

3.03.03.0 Projected Points

Sit

Commanders D/ST

D/STWSHvs PHI

3.53.53.5 Projected Points

Sit

Why Colts D/ST

Sit

Sit — a bottom-tier defensive matchup this week (No. 30): Vegas has BAL at 26.5 points, and 3.0 pts projected vs BAL.

BAL's offense gives up 2.6 sacks and 1.4 turnovers a game (2025), near league average.
Vegas has BAL at 26.5 points as 3.5-point favorites.
Over-started: 1% of leagues have them in, 27th among defenses, against a No. 30 matchup.

Why Commanders D/ST

Sit

Sit — a bottom-tier defensive matchup this week (No. 27): Vegas has PHI at 26 points, and 3.5 pts projected vs PHI.

PHI's offense gives up 2.3 sacks and 0.9 turnovers a game (2025), near league average.
Vegas has PHI at 26 points as 5.5-point favorites.
Started in 1% of leagues, 29th among defenses, in line with a No. 27 matchup.

Head-to-head stats

Metric	Colts D/ST	Commanders D/ST
Projected points	3.03.03.0	3.53.53.5
Projection rank	Proj.DST30	Proj.DST27
Started in	1% of leagues	1% of leagues
Opponent sacks allowed / game	2.6(2025)	2.3(2025)
Opponent turnovers / game	1.4(2025)	0.9(2025)
Opponent implied total	26.5	26.0
Home / away	Home	Away