Colts D/ST or 49ers D/ST: Who Should You Start?

2026 Week 1 · deterministic head-to-head · Verdicts based on PPR scoring.

Too close to call — the edges cancel out.

Colts D/ST and 49ers D/ST grade out even this week. the Colts's best edge is opponent giveaways (2.6 sacks allowed to 1.8), the 49ers's best edge is lineup share (started rank 20 to 27) — and they cancel out. Start whichever player's game you trust more this week.

Colts D/ST

D/STINDvs BAL

Projected Points

Sit

49ers D/ST

D/STSFvs LAR

Projected Points

Sit

Why Colts D/ST

Sit

Sit — a bottom-tier defensive matchup this week (No. 30): Vegas has BAL at 26.5 points, and 3.0 pts projected vs BAL.

  • BAL's offense gives up 2.6 sacks and 1.4 turnovers a game (2025), near league average.
  • Vegas has BAL at 26.5 points as 3.5-point favorites.
  • Over-started: 1% of leagues have them in, 27th among defenses, against a No. 30 matchup.

Why 49ers D/ST

Sit

Sit — a bottom-tier defensive matchup this week (No. 32): LAR protects the ball (0.9 turnovers a game), and Vegas has them at 25.8 points.

  • LAR's offense gives up 1.8 sacks and 0.9 turnovers a game (2025), below league average.
  • Vegas has LAR at 25.8 points as 3-point favorites.
  • Over-started: 4% of leagues have them in, 20th among defenses, against a No. 32 matchup.

Head-to-head stats

MetricColts D/ST49ers D/ST
Projected points
Projection rankProj.DST30Proj.DST32
Started in1% of leagues4% of leagues
Opponent sacks allowed / game2.6(2025)1.8(2025)
Opponent turnovers / game1.4(2025)0.9(2025)
Opponent implied total26.525.8
Home / awayHomeAway

Signal breakdown

  • 3.0 vs 2.6 projected PPR pointsColts D/ST +
  • Started rank 27 vs 20 (1% vs 4% of leagues)49ers D/ST +
  • 2.6 sacks / 1.4 TO vs 1.8 sacks / 0.9 TO per game allowedColts D/ST +
  • Opponent implied 26.5 vs 25.8 points49ers D/ST +
  • Home vs AwayColts D/ST +

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