Daniel Jones or Malik Willis: Who Should You Start?
2026 Week 1 · deterministic head-to-head · Verdicts based on PPR scoring.
Start Jones — the snap share and matchup edges are too wide to ignore.
Daniel Jones plays a 92% snap share to Willis's 42% and draws the softer matchup (BAL ranks 23 of 32 against QBs; LV ranks 15). No signal favors Willis this week. The gap is comfortable.
Daniel Jones
15.215.215.2 Projected Points
Malik Willis
15.115.115.1 Projected Points
Why Daniel Jones
Sit· mediumStarting QB with mobility and play-extension ability. Rebounded as an efficient distributor in a run-heavy, play-action offense.
QB20 with a 15.2 projection and only a 23.0 implied team total — no matchup edge to bank on since the DvP read is a 0-game, zero-confidence sample.
- BAL ranks 23 of 32 against QBs (one of the softer matchups, 17-game sample).
- Vegas implies 23.0 team points as 3.5-point underdogs.
- Listed QB on the latest depth chart with a 92% snap share in 2025.
The call
- Consensus has him QB20 at 15.2 projected points, which is below the starting line in a 12-team league where roughly a dozen QBs are rostered as starters.
- The 23-of-32 DvP composite looks inviting on paper but carries a 0-game sample and 0.00 confidence — there's no reliable matchup tailwind here.
- A 23.0 implied team total in a one-score game (3.5 spread) caps the ceiling; Jones needs volume and rushing production just to hit his projection.
- He's the locked-in QB1 with no injury designation, so the floor is real — but floor without ceiling is exactly the profile you stream past.
Latest on Jones
Daniel Jones remains on track to play in the Colts' season opener after recovering from a torn right Achilles.
Colts' Daniel Jones has one box left to check in dramatic returnESPN · Sep 6, 2026Daniel Jones has commanded the Colts' first-team offense during training camp and taken practically every first-team snap.
Colts' Daniel Jones has one box left to check in dramatic returnESPN · Sep 6, 2026Daniel Jones is healthy and expected to be back in the Colts' backfield with Jonathan Taylor for the Sept. 13 opener.
5 Colts Things: The biggest reasons to be optimistic about Shane Steichen, Daniel Jones, Jonathan Taylor & Colts 2026 offensecolts.com · Sep 4, 2026Daniel Jones took nearly every first-team rep from Day 1 of training camp through the Colts' final preseason practice last week.
Colts head coach Shane Steichen shared a handful of newsworthy items during his press conference prior to practice on Tuesday. We'll start with injury updates:
Reported by the sources listed — not independently verified.
Why Malik Willis
Toss-UpStarting QB with dual-threat mobility. Strong arm and designed-run value; a career backup signed in free agency to take over the job.
Toss-up — QB22 consensus, projects QB23 this week: 42% snap share in 2025, 15.1 PPR projected vs LV.
- LV ranks 15 of 32 against QBs (a middle-of-the-road matchup, 17-game sample).
- Vegas implies 19.3 team points as 3.0-point underdogs.
- Listed QB on the latest depth chart with a 42% snap share in 2025.
Head-to-head stats
| Metric | Daniel Jones | Malik Willis |
|---|---|---|
| Projected points | 15.215.215.2 | 15.115.115.1 |
| Consensus rank | QB22 | QB22 |
| Opponent vs position | BAL · 23 of 3217-game sample | LV · 15 of 3217-game sample |
| Passing Yards | 29 of 32 | 13 of 32 |
| Passing TDs | 10 of 32 | 10 of 32 |
| Passing Completions | 32 of 32 | 19 of 32 |
| Passing Attempts | 30 of 32 | 11 of 32 |
| Interceptions | 16 of 32 | 23 of 32 |
| Implied total · spread | 23.0+3.5 | 19.3+3.0 |
| Depth chart | QB1 | QB1 |
| Snap share | 92%(2025) | 42%(2025) |
Signal breakdown
- 15.2 vs 15.1 projected PPR pointsDaniel Jones +
- Rank 22 vs 22even
- Opponent DvP rank 23 vs 15 (32 = softest)Daniel Jones +
- Implied 23.0 vs 19.3 team pointsDaniel Jones +
- No injury designationseven
- 92% vs 42% snap shareDaniel Jones +
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