Baker Mayfield or Jared Goff: Who Should You Start?

The call

• The projection puts Mayfield at QB14 with 16.2 points, which is streamer territory in a 12-team league — fine if your QB1 is out, not an automatic plug-in.
• Tampa Bay's 23.5 implied total is unspectacular, and the Bengals grade out middle-of-the-pack at 17 of 32 vs the position on a 0-game sample, so there's no matchup edge to lean on yet.
• The 3.5-point spread is the friendliest input: trailing script means dropbacks, and Mayfield is the locked-in QB with no injury designation.
• Weapon uncertainty is real — the reporting frames this as life without Mike Evans, which caps the ceiling until the new pecking order sorts out. Start him if your alternative projects under 16; otherwise sit.

The call

• Detroit's 27.8 implied total is the driving number here — Goff only needs a normal share of that scoring to clear his 15.8 projection.
• The opponent's 9-of-32 DvP composite looks scary but carries a 0-game sample and 0.00 confidence, so it shouldn't override the Vegas number.
• QB16 consensus makes him a back-end QB1 rather than a set-and-forget play; the -7.0 spread is the real risk, since a comfortable lead can shift Detroit toward the run in the second half.
• Full-time starter with no injury designation — role and volume are locked in.