Baker Mayfield or Brock Purdy: Who Should You Start?

The call

• The projection puts Mayfield at QB14 with 16.2 points, which is streamer territory in a 12-team league — fine if your QB1 is out, not an automatic plug-in.
• Tampa Bay's 23.5 implied total is unspectacular, and the Bengals grade out middle-of-the-pack at 17 of 32 vs the position on a 0-game sample, so there's no matchup edge to lean on yet.
• The 3.5-point spread is the friendliest input: trailing script means dropbacks, and Mayfield is the locked-in QB with no injury designation.
• Weapon uncertainty is real — the reporting frames this as life without Mike Evans, which caps the ceiling until the new pecking order sorts out. Start him if your alternative projects under 16; otherwise sit.

The call

• Consensus has him at QB18 for 15.5 points; in a 12-team single-QB league that's below the replacement line you can stream against.
• A 22.8 implied team total and a 3-point underdog spread cap the ceiling — this projects as a moderate-volume, moderate-scoring game rather than a shootout.
• The Rams' defense-vs-QB composite sits 18 of 32, dead-middle, and it's built on a 0-game sample (confidence 0.00), so there's no matchup edge to bank on.
• He's the locked-in starter with no injury designation, so this is purely a ceiling call — if you're thin at QB he's a fine floor play, but a top-12 streamer beats him this week.