Jared Goff or Patrick Mahomes: Who Should You Start?

The call

• Detroit's 27.8 implied total is the driving number here — Goff only needs a normal share of that scoring to clear his 15.8 projection.
• The opponent's 9-of-32 DvP composite looks scary but carries a 0-game sample and 0.00 confidence, so it shouldn't override the Vegas number.
• QB16 consensus makes him a back-end QB1 rather than a set-and-forget play; the -7.0 spread is the real risk, since a comfortable lead can shift Detroit toward the run in the second half.
• Full-time starter with no injury designation — role and volume are locked in.

The call

• The projection is the story: 15.5 points and a QB18 consensus rank put him in streamer range, not automatic QB1 territory, with a 22.5 implied team total capping the ceiling.
• Denver grades middle of the pack at 14 of 32 vs the position, and that composite comes off a 0-game sample with 0.00 confidence — no matchup edge to lean on either way.
• The Questionable designation is the concrete risk; if he's cleared and takes a full workload as the locked-in QB1, his ceiling still beats any replacement-level starter.
• A -2.5 spread points to a tight, competitive script, which is fine for volume — this tips to start the moment the injury report clears him, and to sit if he's limited or trending down.