Falcons D/ST or Patriots D/ST: Who Should You Start?
2026 Week 1 · deterministic head-to-head · Verdicts based on PPR scoring.
Start the Patriots — the lineup-share and opponent giveaway edges are too wide to ignore.
Patriots D/ST is started in more leagues (started rank 9 to 28) and faces the more giveaway-prone offense (2.1 sacks and 1.6 turnovers allowed per game to 2.4 and 0.9). the Falcons's edge is the opponent total, 22.8 to 24.0 opponent implied points. The gap is wide.
Falcons D/ST
D/STATLvs PIT
4.34.34.3 Projected Points
Toss-Up
Patriots D/ST
D/STNEvs SEA
4.74.74.7 Projected Points
Sit
Why Falcons D/ST
Toss-UpToss-up — a middling defensive matchup (No. 22 this week): on the road, and 4.3 pts projected vs PIT.
- PIT's offense gives up 2.4 sacks and 0.9 turnovers a game (2025), near league average.
- Vegas has PIT at 22.8 points as 3-point favorites.
- Under-started: only 1% of leagues have them in, 28th among defenses, against a No. 22 matchup.
Why Patriots D/ST
SitSit — a bottom-tier defensive matchup this week (No. 19): Vegas has SEA at 24 points, and 4.7 pts projected vs SEA.
- SEA's offense gives up 2.1 sacks and 1.6 turnovers a game (2025), near league average.
- Vegas has SEA at 24 points as 3.5-point favorites.
- Over-started: 57% of leagues have them in, 9th among defenses, against a No. 19 matchup.
Head-to-head stats
| Metric | Falcons D/ST | Patriots D/ST |
|---|---|---|
| Projected points | 4.34.34.3 | 4.74.74.7 |
| Projection rank | Proj.DST22 | Proj.DST19 |
| Started in | 1% of leagues | 57% of leagues |
| Opponent sacks allowed / game | 2.4(2025) | 2.1(2025) |
| Opponent turnovers / game | 0.9(2025) | 1.6(2025) |
| Opponent implied total | 22.8 | 24.0 |
| Home / away | Away | Away |
Signal breakdown
- 4.3 vs 4.7 projected PPR pointsPatriots D/ST +
- Started rank 28 vs 9 (1% vs 57% of leagues)Patriots D/ST +
- 2.4 sacks / 0.9 TO vs 2.1 sacks / 1.6 TO per game allowedPatriots D/ST +
- Opponent implied 22.8 vs 24.0 pointsFalcons D/ST +
- Away vs Awayeven
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