Start Patriots D/ST over Raiders D/ST — Week 1 Start/Sit Verdict

Start the Patriots — the lineup-share edge is too wide to ignore.

Patriots D/ST is started in more leagues (started rank 9 to 27). the Raiders's edge is the opponent total, 19.3 to 24.0 opponent implied points. The gap is narrow.

Raiders D/ST

D/STLVvs MIA

4.84.84.8 Projected Points

Toss-Up· medium

Patriots D/ST

D/STNEvs SEA

4.74.74.7 Projected Points

Sit

Why Raiders D/ST

Toss-Up· medium

Miami's 19.3 implied total and 2.9 sacks allowed per game make this a live stream, but DST18 and 4.8 projected points sit outside the 12-team starter tier.

MIA's offense gives up 2.9 sacks and 1.4 turnovers a game (2025), near league average.
Vegas has MIA at 19.3 points as 3-point dogs.
Under-started: only 1% of leagues have them in, 27th among defenses, against a No. 18 matchup.

The call

The matchup is the case for playing them: Miami's implied total is just 19.3, Las Vegas is a 3-point home favorite, and the model projects only 17.2 points allowed — the low-scoring script DSTs need.
Pressure and takeaway volume are there in theory, with the Dolphins allowing 2.9 sacks and coughing up 1.4 turnovers per game, but the projection only converts that to 2.4 sacks and 0.6 interceptions.
At 4.8 projected points and DST18 among 32, this is a below-starter baseline in a 12-team league — the 1% lineup share (27th of 32) reflects a unit nobody is rostering.
Tipping point: if your DST slot is otherwise a waiver scrap or a defense facing a high-total offense, the 19.3 opponent total wins out; if you hold a top-12 projected unit, leave the Raiders on the bench.

Why Patriots D/ST

Sit

Sit — a bottom-tier defensive matchup this week (No. 19): Vegas has SEA at 24 points, and 4.7 pts projected vs SEA.

SEA's offense gives up 2.1 sacks and 1.6 turnovers a game (2025), near league average.
Vegas has SEA at 24 points as 3.5-point favorites.
Over-started: 57% of leagues have them in, 9th among defenses, against a No. 19 matchup.

Head-to-head stats

Metric	Raiders D/ST	Patriots D/ST
Projected points	4.84.84.8	4.74.74.7
Projection rank	Proj.DST18	Proj.DST19
Started in	1% of leagues	57% of leagues
Opponent sacks allowed / game	2.9(2025)	2.1(2025)
Opponent turnovers / game	1.4(2025)	1.6(2025)
Opponent implied total	19.3	24.0
Home / away	Home	Away
Start/Sit record	0–0+1 toss-up	—