Start T.J. Hockenson over Pat Freiermuth — Week 1 Start/Sit Verdict

Start Hockenson — the snap share and consensus rank edges are too wide to ignore.

T.J. Hockenson plays a 78% snap share to Freiermuth's 53% and is the higher consensus play (TE15 to TE18). Freiermuth's edge is the game script, 22.8 implied points to 21.5. The gap is narrow.

Pat Freiermuth

TE18PITvs ATL

4.96.78.4 Projected Points

Toss-Up

T.J. Hockenson

TE15MINvs GB

4.76.99.2 Projected Points

Start· medium

Why Pat Freiermuth

Toss-Up

TE1 in pass-catching role. Reliable chain-mover with red-zone size and dependable hands.

Toss-up — TE18 consensus, projects TE17 this week: ATL is the 3rd-toughest matchup vs TEs, 12% target share in 2025.

ATL ranks 3 of 32 against TEs (one of the tougher matchups, 0-game sample).
Vegas implies 22.8 team points as 3.0-point favorites.
Listed TE on the latest depth chart with a 53% snap share in 2025.

Why T.J. Hockenson

Start· medium

TE1 and primary middle-of-field target. Route-savvy seam threat with high-volume usage when healthy.

Locked-in receiving TE role — 78% snaps, 16% target share and 9.2 projected PPR play up in a one-score game (spread 1.5).

GB ranks 12 of 32 against TEs (a middle-of-the-road matchup, 0-game sample).
Vegas implies 21.5 team points as 1.5-point underdogs.
Listed TE on the latest depth chart with a 78% snap share in 2025.

The call

Hockenson is the clear pass-catching half of the 1a/1b split with Josh Oliver handling the blocking work, so the target volume behind his 16% share is safe.
78% snap share over 15 games plus no injury designation means the floor is real; TE production is volume-driven and he has it.
A 1.5-point spread and 21.5 implied total point to a competitive script where the offense keeps throwing rather than milking a lead.
The caution: consensus has him at TE15 and the DvP composite sits 12 of 32 on a 0-game sample, so this is a mid-range TE1 play, not a matchup smash spot.

Head-to-head stats

Metric	Pat Freiermuth	T.J. Hockenson
Projected points	4.96.78.4	4.76.99.2
Consensus rank	TE18	TE15
Opponent vs position	ATL · 3 of 320-game sample	GB · 12 of 320-game sample
Receptions	3 of 32	19 of 32
Receiving Yards	8 of 32	6 of 32
Receiving TDs	1 of 32	9 of 32
Targets	4 of 32	19 of 32
Anytime TD	1 of 32	9 of 32
Target share	12%(2025)	16%(2025)
Reception share	13%(2025)	19%(2025)
Implied total · spread	22.8-3.0	21.5+1.5
Depth chart	TE1	TE1
Snap share	53%(2025)	78%(2025)