Daniel Jones or Sam Darnold: Toss-Up — Week 1 Start/Sit Verdict

Too close to call — the edges cancel out.

Daniel Jones and Sam Darnold grade out even this week. Jones's best edge is the projection (15.2 to 14.0), Darnold's best edge is the game script (24.0 implied points to 23.0) — and they cancel out. Start whichever player's game you trust more this week.

Daniel Jones

QB22INDvs BAL

15.215.215.2 Projected Points

Sit· medium

Sam Darnold

QB25SEAvs NE

14.014.014.0 Projected Points

Toss-Up

Why Daniel Jones

Sit· medium

Starting QB with mobility and play-extension ability. Rebounded as an efficient distributor in a run-heavy, play-action offense.

QB20 with a 15.2 projection and only a 23.0 implied team total — no matchup edge to bank on since the DvP read is a 0-game, zero-confidence sample.

BAL ranks 23 of 32 against QBs (one of the softer matchups, 0-game sample).
Vegas implies 23.0 team points as 3.5-point underdogs.
Listed QB on the latest depth chart with a 92% snap share in 2025.

The call

Consensus has him QB20 at 15.2 projected points, which is below the starting line in a 12-team league where roughly a dozen QBs are rostered as starters.
The 23-of-32 DvP composite looks inviting on paper but carries a 0-game sample and 0.00 confidence — there's no reliable matchup tailwind here.
A 23.0 implied team total in a one-score game (3.5 spread) caps the ceiling; Jones needs volume and rushing production just to hit his projection.
He's the locked-in QB1 with no injury designation, so the floor is real — but floor without ceiling is exactly the profile you stream past.

Latest on Jones

Status

Daniel Jones remains on track to play in the Colts' season opener after recovering from a torn right Achilles.

Colts' Daniel Jones has one box left to check in dramatic return ESPN · Sep 6, 2026

Role

Daniel Jones has commanded the Colts' first-team offense during training camp and taken practically every first-team snap.

Colts' Daniel Jones has one box left to check in dramatic return ESPN · Sep 6, 2026

Status

Daniel Jones is healthy and expected to be back in the Colts' backfield with Jonathan Taylor for the Sept. 13 opener.

5 Colts Things: The biggest reasons to be optimistic about Shane Steichen, Daniel Jones, Jonathan Taylor & Colts 2026 offense colts.com · Sep 4, 2026

Daniel Jones' availability throughout training camp, preseason underscores Colts' confidence in 2026 offense

Daniel Jones took nearly every first-team rep from Day 1 of training camp through the Colts' final preseason practice last week.

colts.com · Sep 1, 2026

Colts hopeful Alec Pierce returns to practice this week, starters (minus Daniel Jones, Jonathan Taylor) to play 8-12 plays in preseason finale vs. Detroit Lions

Colts head coach Shane Steichen shared a handful of newsworthy items during his press conference prior to practice on Tuesday. We'll start with injury updates:

colts.com · Aug 25, 2026

Reported by the sources listed — not independently verified.

Why Sam Darnold

Toss-Up

Starting QB with prototypical size and arm strength. Full 17-game workload, 4,000-yard passer whose turnover volume caps efficiency.

Toss-up — QB25 consensus, projects QB27 this week: 24.0 implied team total, 96% snap share in 2025.

NE ranks 13 of 32 against QBs (a middle-of-the-road matchup, 0-game sample).
Vegas implies 24.0 team points as 3.5-point favorites.
Listed QB on the latest depth chart with a 96% snap share in 2025.

Head-to-head stats

Metric	Daniel Jones	Sam Darnold
Projected points	15.215.215.2	14.014.014.0
Consensus rank	QB22	QB25
Opponent vs position	BAL · 23 of 320-game sample	NE · 13 of 320-game sample
Passing Yards	29 of 32	9 of 32
Passing TDs	10 of 32	15 of 32
Passing Completions	32 of 32	15 of 32
Passing Attempts	30 of 32	12 of 32
Interceptions	16 of 32	16 of 32
Implied total · spread	23.0+3.5	24.0-3.5
Depth chart	QB1	QB1
Snap share	92%(2025)	96%(2025)