Aaron Rodgers or Sam Darnold: Who Should You Start?
2026 Week 1 · deterministic head-to-head · Verdicts based on PPR scoring.
Too close to call — the edges cancel out.
Aaron Rodgers and Sam Darnold grade out even this week. Rodgers's best edge is the projection (14.8 to 14.0), Darnold's best edge is the game script (24.0 implied points to 22.8) — and they cancel out. Start whichever player's game you trust more this week.
Aaron Rodgers
14.814.814.8 Projected Points
Sam Darnold
14.014.014.0 Projected Points
Why Aaron Rodgers
StartStarting QB and late-career franchise stabilizer. Elite processor and anticipation thrower with diminished mobility.
Start — QB25 consensus, projects QB24 this week: 96% snap share in 2025, 14.8 PPR projected vs ATL.
- ATL ranks 12 of 32 against QBs (a middle-of-the-road matchup, 0-game sample).
- Vegas implies 22.8 team points as 3.0-point favorites.
- Listed QB on the latest depth chart with a 96% snap share in 2025.
Latest on Rodgers
Aaron Rodgers asked Father Paul to bless the quarterbacks during training camp.
The story behind Steelers' viral field blessing: 'God doesn't pick sides'ESPN · Sep 6, 2026The 42-year-old quarterback is in new territory, but he says Pittsburgh's young passers are ahead of where he was as a rookie.
LaFleur recently said Love is "the best I've been around in terms of protections and adjustments."
The Steelers are keeping four quarterbacks on their initial 53-man roster, with Mason Rudolph, Will Howard and Drew Allar earning spots behind starter Aaron Rodgers.
Reported by the sources listed — not independently verified.
Why Sam Darnold
Toss-UpStarting QB with prototypical size and arm strength. Full 17-game workload, 4,000-yard passer whose turnover volume caps efficiency.
Toss-up — QB25 consensus, projects QB27 this week: 24.0 implied team total, 96% snap share in 2025.
- NE ranks 13 of 32 against QBs (a middle-of-the-road matchup, 0-game sample).
- Vegas implies 24.0 team points as 3.5-point favorites.
- Listed QB on the latest depth chart with a 96% snap share in 2025.
Head-to-head stats
| Metric | Aaron Rodgers | Sam Darnold |
|---|---|---|
| Projected points | 14.814.814.8 | 14.014.014.0 |
| Consensus rank | QB25 | QB25 |
| Opponent vs position | ATL · 12 of 320-game sample | NE · 13 of 320-game sample |
| Passing Yards | 15 of 32 | 9 of 32 |
| Passing TDs | 20 of 32 | 15 of 32 |
| Passing Completions | 8 of 32 | 15 of 32 |
| Passing Attempts | 13 of 32 | 12 of 32 |
| Interceptions | 6 of 32 | 16 of 32 |
| Implied total · spread | 22.8-3.0 | 24.0-3.5 |
| Depth chart | QB1 | QB1 |
| Snap share | 96%(2025) | 96%(2025) |
Signal breakdown
- 14.8 vs 14.0 projected PPR pointsAaron Rodgers +
- Rank 25 vs 25Sam Darnold +
- Opponent DvP rank 12 vs 13 (32 = softest)even
- Implied 22.8 vs 24.0 team pointsSam Darnold +
- No injury designationseven
- 96% vs 96% snap shareSam Darnold +
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