Start Dominic Zvada over Daniel Carlson — Week 1 Start/Sit Verdict

Start Zvada — the red-zone opportunity and game script edges are too wide to ignore.

Dominic Zvada gets more red-zone stalls to kick from (1.9 to 1.5 per game) and plays in the better game script (23.5 implied team points to 20.8). Carlson's edge is attempt volume, 2.1 to 2.1 projected attempts. The gap is narrow.

Daniel Carlson

K21NOvs DET

7.77.77.7 Projected Points

Toss-Up

Dominic Zvada

K20NYGvs DAL

8.18.18.1 Projected Points

Start· medium

Why Daniel Carlson

Toss-Up

Veteran placekicker with big-leg range. Established accuracy over a long starting run.

Toss-up — K21 by consensus, projects K23 this week: kicks indoors, and 1.5 red-zone stalls a game.

Kicks indoors — no weather risk.
2.1 FG tries projected, just over the 2.0 league median this week.
NO's offense stalls in the red zone 1.5 times a game (2025) — that's where kicker points come from.
Vegas has NO at 20.8 points as 7-point dogs.

Latest on Carlson

Saints to sign two-time All-Pro kicker Daniel Carlson

The Saints are signing free agent kicker Daniel Carlson, his agents told The NFL Network's Mike Garafolo and Ian Rapoport.

ESPN · Aug 24, 2026

Reported by the sources listed — not independently verified.

Why Dominic Zvada

Start· medium

Starting PK with big leg and strong college accuracy. Rookie with no prior NFL sample.

8.1 projected on 2.1 FG tries plus 2.2 XPs, with a 23.5 implied total and 1.9 red-zone stalls per game feeding the leg — startable K1 volume.

2.1 FG tries projected, just over the 2.0 league median this week.
NYG's offense stalls in the red zone 1.9 times a game (2025) — that's where kicker points come from.
Vegas has NYG at 23.5 points as 1.5-point dogs.

The call

The 23.5 implied team total is squarely in the range where kickers clear 8 points, and the sheet projects 1.7 makes on 2.1 attempts plus 2.2 extra points — that's a full workload, not a boom-or-bust one-kick night.
Red-zone stalls of 1.9 per game over 17 games is the key driver: this offense reliably converts drives into field-goal tries, which is exactly what separates fantasy kickers.
He's the locked-in PK1 with no injury designation, so there's no split-duty or availability risk to price in.
Only wobble is the open roof with no forecast yet — check wind before locking him in, but nothing in the sheet argues for a downgrade.

Head-to-head stats

Metric	Daniel Carlson	Dominic Zvada
Projected points	7.77.77.7	8.18.18.1
Consensus rank	K21	K20
Projected FG attempts	2.1	2.1
Red-zone stalls / game	1.5(2025)	1.9(2025)
Kicking conditions	Indoors, no weather risk	—
Implied total · spread	20.8+7.0	23.5+1.5
Field-goal %	81.5%(2025)	—
Depth chart	K1	K1