Start Tyler Loop over Cairo Santos — Week 1 Start/Sit Verdict

Start Loop — the red-zone opportunity and game script edges are too wide to ignore.

Tyler Loop gets more red-zone stalls to kick from (1.9 to 1.4 per game) and plays in the better game script (26.5 implied team points to 23.5). No signal favors Santos this week. The gap is comfortable.

Cairo Santos

K15CHIvs CAR

8.38.38.3 Projected Points

Toss-Up· medium

Tyler Loop

K12BALvs IND

8.58.58.5 Projected Points

Start· medium

Why Cairo Santos

Toss-Up· medium

Veteran starting K. Accurate mid-range leg with long tenure as the team's kicker.

K15 with a fine 23.5 implied total and 1.4 red-zone stalls per game, but an open roof with no forecast keeps him a coin flip in 12-team leagues.

2.0 FG tries projected, right at the 2.0 league median this week.
CHI's offense stalls in the red zone 1.4 times a game (2025) — that's where kicker points come from.
Vegas has CHI at 23.5 points as 2.5-point favorites.
83% on field goals (2025), with a 50-plus make in 3 games.

The call

8.3 projected points and a K15 consensus rank put Santos right on the 12-team starter bubble — he's not a clear upgrade over a typical waiver kicker.
The volume case is real: a 23.5 implied team total, 1.4 red-zone stalls per game and 2.0 projected attempts plus 2.2 extra points give him a normal workload as the locked-in PK1.
He's accurate and has range — 83% (25/30) with a long of 54 and three games with a 50-plus make — so touchdown-free drives still convert to points.
The tiebreaker is weather: Soldier Field is an open roof with no forecast yet. A clean, calm day nudges him to a start; wind or precipitation makes him an easy sit.

Why Tyler Loop

Start· medium

Starting placekicker who handles kickoffs. Accurate inside 50 but limited range, hitting just 1-of-4 from 50-plus as a rookie with a long of 52.

K12 with a 26.5 implied total, 88% accuracy and a retractable-roof venue — locked-in PK1 with 4.6 projected scoring chances.

2.0 FG tries projected, right at the 2.0 league median this week.
BAL's offense stalls in the red zone 1.9 times a game (2025) — that's where kicker points come from.
Vegas has BAL at 26.5 points as 3.5-point favorites.
88% on field goals (2025), with a 50-plus make in 1 game.

The call

A 26.5 implied team total is top-tier kicker territory: the projection has him at 1.7 made field goals plus 2.6 extra points, giving multiple paths to a usable score.
Loop has been automatic at 88% (30/34) with a long of 52, so the attempts he gets should convert; the offense also stalls in the red zone 1.9 times per game, which is exactly the profile that feeds field-goal volume.
Retractable roof removes most weather risk, and as the unquestioned PK1 with no injury designation there's no snap-share or availability concern.
Downside is the modest 2.0 projected attempts — if the offense finishes drives with touchdowns instead of stalling, he lives on extra points, but that's the good version of the game script anyway.

Latest on Loop

Minter backs Loop as Ravens add kicker competition in Moody

Baltimore signed Jake Moody to the practice squad three days after Tyler Loop missed two kicks in the preseason finale.

ESPN · Aug 31, 2026

Jesse Minter still has confidence in K Tyler Loop

Jamison Hensley breaks down the kicking situation for the Ravens.

ESPN · Aug 31, 2026

K Tyler Loop struggles in preseason finale

Jamison Hensley discusses whether Tyler Loop's job is in jeopardy after a lackluster preseason.

ESPN · Aug 29, 2026

Reported by the sources listed — not independently verified.

Head-to-head stats

Metric	Cairo Santos	Tyler Loop
Projected points	8.38.38.3	8.58.58.5
Consensus rank	K15	K12
Projected FG attempts	2.0	2.0
Red-zone stalls / game	1.4(2025)	1.9(2025)
Implied total · spread	23.5-2.5	26.5-3.5
Field-goal %	83.3%(2025)	88.2%(2025)
Depth chart	K1	K1
Start/Sit record	0–0+1 toss-up	—