Aaron Jones Sr. or Rhamondre Stevenson: Who Should You Start?

The call

• Committee math is the issue: Yahoo describes Jones and Jordan Mason as a true 1a/1b tandem, and the 55% snap share confirms he isn't a workhorse — that caps the ceiling at the 10.3-point projection.
• PPR is his friend. A 12% target share over 12 games is strong for a running back and gives him a safe floor even if the goal-line work goes elsewhere.
• Game script is neutral-to-good: a 1.5-point spread and 21.5 implied team total mean no game-flow blowup, so he should see his full complement of touches.
• Matchup grades middle of the pack (17 of 32) but on a 0-game sample with 0.00 confidence, so there's no edge to lean on either way. If you have a clear RB2/flex with a defined lead role, start that guy; if your bench is thin, Jones is a playable flex.

The call

• Consensus has him at RB31 with 10.5 projected points — that's flex-fringe in a 12-team PPR, not a set-and-forget RB2.
• The 59% snap share and 9% target share are the saving grace: he stays on the field on passing downs, which protects the floor even if the ground game stalls.
• Seattle's defense grades 12 of 32 vs the position (32 = softest), so this is a middling-to-tough matchup, and it's built on a 0-game sample with 0.00 confidence — treat it as noise, not a green light.
• A 20.5 implied team total as a 3.5-point underdog points to a negative script that trims goal-line work; if you have a healthy RB2 in a shootout, sit him — if your alternative is a committee back with no receiving role, Stevenson's targets win the tiebreak.