Start Aaron Jones Sr. over TreVeyon Henderson — Week 1 Start/Sit Verdict

Start Jones — the availability and matchup edges are too wide to ignore.

Aaron Jones Sr. is the healthier side of this call (Henderson carries a questionable tag) and draws the softer matchup (GB ranks 17 of 32 against RBs; SEA ranks 12). No signal favors Henderson this week. The gap is comfortable.

Aaron Jones Sr.

RB34MINvs GB

7.58.910.3 Projected Points

Toss-Up· medium

TreVeyon Henderson

RB35NEvs SEA

7.89.010.1 Projected Points

Sit

Why Aaron Jones Sr.

Toss-Up· medium

RB1 and veteran lead back. Balanced runner with reliable receiving chops, though workload now shared.

RB34 at 10.3 projected in a true 1a/1b with Jordan Mason — 12% target share keeps him PPR-viable, but 55% snaps cap the ceiling.

GB ranks 17 of 32 against RBs (a middle-of-the-road matchup, 17-game sample).
Vegas implies 21.5 team points as 1.5-point underdogs.
Listed RB on the latest depth chart with a 55% snap share in 2025.

The call

Yahoo's depth-chart reporting frames Jones and Jordan Mason as 1a/1b co-starters, with Mason possibly getting extra early-down work — that's a hard cap on Jones' touch ceiling and the reason a 55% snap share overstates his lead-back value.
The 12% target share is the saving grace in PPR; receiving work travels regardless of who gets the goal-line carries, and a 1.5-point spread means no game script that buries him.
Matchup is dead neutral (17 of 32 DvP, and on a zero-game sample with no confidence behind it) and the 21.5 implied team total is middling — nothing here elevates him above his RB34 consensus rank.
Tip it to start if Mason is downgraded or you need the PPR floor at flex; tip it to sit if you have any every-down back or a pass-catching option with a better implied total on your bench.

Why TreVeyon Henderson

Sit

RB2 and explosive change-of-pace back. Home-run speed with pass-protection and receiving value.

Sit — RB35 by consensus and projection: 9% target share in 2025, Questionable on the latest report.

Carries a Questionable tag — usually plays, but monitor the final report.
SEA ranks 12 of 32 against RBs (a middle-of-the-road matchup, 17-game sample).
Vegas implies 20.5 team points as 3.5-point underdogs.
Listed RB on the latest depth chart with a 46% snap share in 2025.

Latest on Henderson

Status

TreVeyon Henderson has missed practice since Aug. 24 because of an ankle injury, creating uncertainty about his availability for the season opener.

What will Patriots do if RB TreVeyon Henderson is out Week 1?ESPN · Sep 6, 2026

Head-to-head stats

Metric	Aaron Jones Sr.	TreVeyon Henderson
Projected points	7.58.910.3	7.89.010.1
Consensus rank	RB34	RB35
Opponent vs position	GB · 17 of 3217-game sample	SEA · 12 of 3217-game sample
Rushing Yards	21 of 32	3 of 32
Rushing TDs	19 of 32	1 of 32
Rushing Attempts	27 of 32	9 of 32
Receptions	20 of 32	32 of 32
Receiving Yards	8 of 32	27 of 32
Anytime TD	9 of 32	1 of 32
Target share	12%(2025)	9%(2025)
Reception share	13%(2025)	10%(2025)
Implied total · spread	21.5+1.5	20.5+3.5
Depth chart	RB1	RB2
Snap share	55%(2025)	46%(2025)
Injury designation	—	questionable
Start/Sit record	0–0+1 toss-up	—