Lions D/ST or Chargers D/ST: Who Should You Start?
2026 Week 1 · deterministic head-to-head · Verdicts based on PPR scoring.
Too close to call — the edges cancel out.
Lions D/ST and Chargers D/ST grade out even this week. the Lions's best edge is lineup share (started rank 8 to 12), the Chargers's best edge is the opponent total (17.0 to 20.8 opponent implied points) — and they cancel out. Start whichever player's game you trust more this week.

Lions D/ST
7.47.47.4 Projected Points

Chargers D/ST
7.57.57.5 Projected Points
Why Lions D/ST
StartStart — the No. 4 defensive matchup this week: 7.4 pts projected vs NO.
- NO's offense gives up 3.1 sacks and 1.4 turnovers a game (2025), near league average.
- Vegas has NO at 20.8 points as 7-point dogs.
- Under-started: only 63% of leagues have them in, 8th among defenses, against a No. 4 matchup.
Why Chargers D/ST
Start· highDST3 projection at home as an 11.5-point favorite against an offense allowing 3.7 sacks per game with a 17.0 implied total.
- ARI's offense gives up 3.7 sacks and 1.2 turnovers a game (2025), well above league average.
- Vegas has ARI at 17 points as 11.5-point dogs.
- Under-started: only 49% of leagues have them in, 12th among defenses, against a No. 3 matchup.
The call
- The Vegas setup is everything for a defense: -11.5 at home with Arizona's implied total at 17.0 means a positive game script and a likely pass-heavy, mistake-prone opponent in the second half.
- Arizona's line surrenders 3.7 sacks per game and the offense coughs up 1.2 turnovers per game — that's the pressure-plus-takeaway combination that produces DST spike weeks.
- The model projects 7.5 points on 2.7 sacks, 0.7 interceptions and just 16.6 points allowed, which grades out DST3 this week — a clear start over any streamer.
- Only 48% of leagues have this defense in lineups (crowd rank 12), so it's available in plenty of leagues despite the top-three projection.
Head-to-head stats
| Metric | Lions D/ST | Chargers D/ST |
|---|---|---|
| Projected points | 7.47.47.4 | 7.57.57.5 |
| Projection rank | Proj.DST4 | Proj.DST3 |
| Started in | 63% of leagues | 49% of leagues |
| Opponent sacks allowed / game | 3.1(2025) | 3.7(2025) |
| Opponent turnovers / game | 1.4(2025) | 1.2(2025) |
| Opponent implied total | 20.8 | 17.0 |
| Home / away | Home | Home |
Signal breakdown
- 7.4 vs 7.5 projected PPR pointsChargers D/ST +
- Started rank 8 vs 12 (63% vs 49% of leagues)Lions D/ST +
- 3.1 sacks / 1.4 TO vs 3.7 sacks / 1.2 TO per game allowedChargers D/ST +
- Opponent implied 20.8 vs 17.0 pointsChargers D/ST +
- Home vs Homeeven
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