Darren Waller or Gunnar Helm: Who Should You Start?
2026 Week 1 · deterministic head-to-head · Verdicts based on PPR scoring.
Start Helm — the consensus rank and projection edges are too wide to ignore.
Gunnar Helm is the higher consensus play (TE23 to TE26) and projects 7.5 to Waller's 7.1. No signal favors Waller this week. The gap is narrow.
In standard and half-PPR scoring this is a coin flip.
Darren Waller
TE26CARvs CHI
4.65.87.1 Projected Points
Toss-Up
Gunnar Helm
TE23TENvs NYJ
4.25.87.5 Projected Points
Toss-Up
Why Darren Waller
Toss-UpToss-up — TE26 consensus, projects TE25 this week: 16% target share in 2025, 7.1 PPR projected vs CHI.
- CHI ranks 13 of 32 against TEs (a middle-of-the-road matchup, 0-game sample).
- Vegas implies 21.0 team points as 2.5-point underdogs.
- Listed TE on the latest depth chart with a 47% snap share in 2025.
Latest on Waller
Catch up on our updates from Panthers training camp, including intel on QBs, position battles and potential breakouts.
ESPN · Aug 26, 2026
Reported by the sources listed — not independently verified.
Why Gunnar Helm
Toss-UpStarting TE and volume underneath target. Reliable seam and checkdown option with developing in-line blocking.
Toss-up — TE23 by consensus and projection: 11% target share in 2025, 7.5 PPR projected vs NYJ.
- NYJ ranks 20 of 32 against TEs (a middle-of-the-road matchup, 0-game sample).
- Vegas implies 21.3 team points as 3.0-point favorites.
- Listed TE on the latest depth chart with a 53% snap share in 2025.
Head-to-head stats
| Metric | Darren Waller | Gunnar Helm |
|---|---|---|
| Projected points | 4.65.87.1 | 4.25.87.5 |
| Consensus rank | TE26 | TE23 |
| Opponent vs position | CHI · 13 of 320-game sample | NYJ · 20 of 320-game sample |
| Receptions | 20 of 32 | 17 of 32 |
| Receiving Yards | 13 of 32 | 17 of 32 |
| Receiving TDs | 9 of 32 | 26 of 32 |
| Targets | 16 of 32 | 16 of 32 |
| Anytime TD | 9 of 32 | 26 of 32 |
| Target share | 16%(2025) | 11%(2025) |
| Reception share | 16%(2025) | 14%(2025) |
| Implied total · spread | 21.0+2.5 | 21.3-3.0 |
| Depth chart | TE3 | TE1 |
| Snap share | 47%(2025) | 53%(2025) |
Signal breakdown
- 7.1 vs 7.5 projected PPR pointsGunnar Helm +
- Rank 26 vs 23Gunnar Helm +
- Opponent DvP rank 13 vs 20 (32 = softest)even
- Implied 21.0 vs 21.3 team pointsGunnar Helm +
- No injury designationseven
- 47% vs 53% snap shareGunnar Helm +
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