Jaxson Dart or Matthew Stafford: Who Should You Start?
2026 Week 1 · deterministic head-to-head · Verdicts based on PPR scoring.
Too close to call — the edges cancel out.
Jaxson Dart and Matthew Stafford grade out even this week. Dart's best edge is the projection (18.5 to 17.5), Stafford's best edge is the game script (25.8 implied points to 23.5) — and they cancel out. Start whichever player's game you trust more this week.

Jaxson Dart
18.518.518.5 Projected Points

Matthew Stafford
17.517.517.5 Projected Points
Why Jaxson Dart
Start· mediumStarting QB and franchise building block. Dual-threat with designed-run production and aggressive downfield arm.
QB9 consensus at 18.5 projected with a soft Dallas matchup (28th of 32 DvP) and a one-score script that keeps him throwing.
- DAL ranks 28 of 32 against QBs (one of the softer matchups, 0-game sample).
- Vegas implies 23.5 team points as 1.5-point underdogs.
- Listed QB on the latest depth chart with a 84% snap share in 2025.
The call
- Consensus has him as the QB9 at 18.5 projected points — that is a clear starter in a 12-team league, not a streamer flier.
- Dallas grades 28th of 32 in defense-vs-QB composite; the sample is thin (0 games, 0.00 confidence), but nothing in the sheet points to a tough draw.
- A 1.5-point spread and a 23.5 implied team total mean a competitive game with meaningful volume — no blowout risk that shrinks his dropbacks.
- He's the locked-in QB1 on the depth chart with no injury designation, so the floor is a full workload.
Latest on Dart
Catch up on our updates from Giants training camp, including intel on QBs, position battles and potential breakouts.
Reported by the sources listed — not independently verified.
Why Matthew Stafford
Start· mediumVeteran starting QB and offensive centerpiece. Reigning NFL MVP who led the league with 4,707 passing yards and 46 touchdowns in 2025.
QB9 consensus with 17.5 projected points, a 25.8 implied total and a top-third-softest pass matchup (25 of 32) — clear one-QB starter.
- SF ranks 25 of 32 against QBs (one of the softer matchups, 0-game sample).
- Vegas implies 25.8 team points as 3.0-point favorites.
- Listed QB on the latest depth chart with a 99% snap share in 2025.
The call
- Consensus has him at QB9 with 17.5 projected points, which is starting territory in any 12-team format regardless of the opponent.
- The DvP composite ranks San Francisco 25 of 32 toward the softest end, though the 0-game sample and 0.00 confidence mean the number carries little weight this early.
- A 25.8 implied total with the Rams laying 3.0 points points to a competitive script — enough scoring volume to support a full workload without leaning on garbage-time passing.
- No injury designation and the locked-in QB1 slot remove any usage risk; this is a plug-and-play week.
Latest on Stafford
Matthew Stafford participated in the eighth training camp practice while competing against the first-team defensive backs.
From the Podium: Sean McVay, Matthew Stafford and Trent McDuffie recap high-quality eighth training camp practicetherams.com · Aug 3, 2026Matthew Stafford has followed a modified practice schedule of two days on and two days off in the Rams' four-day practice blocks this year.
Matthew Stafford and Davante Adams' rapport benefitting from training camp practices this year that they didn't have together in 2025therams.com · Aug 5, 2026Matthew Stafford has a scheduled Tuesday off day and is expected back on the field Wednesday.
Matthew Stafford 'sharp' in first 2026 training camp practicetherams.com · Jul 28, 2026Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford and wide receiver Davante Adams looked in sync throughout this summer in a way that resembled their connection during the second half of last season.
Rams head coach Sean McVay, quarterback Matthew Stafford and wide receiver Davante Adams discuss the team's approach to travel and more for Week 1 in Australia against 49ers
Reported by the sources listed — not independently verified.
Head-to-head stats
| Metric | Jaxson Dart | Matthew Stafford |
|---|---|---|
| Projected points | 18.518.518.5 | 17.517.517.5 |
| Consensus rank | QB6 | QB9 |
| Opponent vs position | DAL · 28 of 320-game sample | SF · 25 of 320-game sample |
| Passing Yards | 32 of 32 | 23 of 32 |
| Passing TDs | 31 of 32 | 21 of 32 |
| Passing Completions | 27 of 32 | 30 of 32 |
| Passing Attempts | 22 of 32 | 25 of 32 |
| Interceptions | 28 of 32 | 28 of 32 |
| Implied total · spread | 23.5+1.5 | 25.8-3.0 |
| Depth chart | QB1 | QB1 |
| Snap share | 84%(2025) | 99%(2025) |
Signal breakdown
- 18.5 vs 17.5 projected PPR pointsJaxson Dart +
- Rank 6 vs 9Jaxson Dart +
- Opponent DvP rank 28 vs 25 (32 = softest)even
- Implied 23.5 vs 25.8 team pointsMatthew Stafford +
- No injury designationseven
- 84% vs 99% snap shareMatthew Stafford +
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