Start Jameson Williams over Luther Burden III — Week 1 Start/Sit Verdict

Start Williams — the availability and snap share edges are too wide to ignore.

Jameson Williams is the healthier side of this call (Burden carries a Questionable tag) and plays a 90% snap share to Burden's 40%. No signal favors Burden this week. The gap is wide.

Jameson Williams

WR26DETvs NO

8.410.312.1 Projected Points

Start· medium

Luther Burden III

WR28CHIvs CAR

7.69.812.0 Projected Points

Toss-Up

Why Jameson Williams

Start· medium

WR2 and primary vertical threat. Elite straight-line speed stretching the field on deep shots and jet motion.

WR26 projection with a 90% snap share and 19% target share in a 27.8-implied-total offense — locked-in WR2 role, no designation.

NO ranks 10 of 32 against WRs (one of the tougher matchups, 0-game sample).
Vegas implies 27.8 team points as 7.0-point favorites.
Listed WR-2 on the latest depth chart with a 90% snap share in 2025.

The call

Role is not in question: 90% snap share and a 19% target share over 17 games make him the clear WR-2 in one of the league's highest-scoring offenses.
Vegas backs the volume — a 27.8 implied team total gives Detroit plenty of scoring chances, and his 12.1 projected points slot him as a WR26, a startable weekly floor in 12-team PPR.
The DvP composite ranks New Orleans 10 of 32 against the position, but that's a 0-game sample at 0.00 confidence, so it shouldn't override the role and team-total evidence.
Main risk is the profile: as a field-stretcher his week-to-week output is spiky, and a -7.0 spread could shift Detroit to the run late if they build a lead.

Latest on Williams

Role

Williams and Amon-Ra St. Brown are the Lions' only proven receivers, with little established ability behind them on a depth chart the team may still add to.

Sports Illustrated (Lions On SI) · Sep 6, 2026

Why Luther Burden III

Toss-Up

WR2 and outside starter opposite Rome Odunze. Explosive yards-after-catch threat with manufactured-touch usage.

Toss-up — WR28 by consensus and projection: CAR is the 7th-toughest matchup vs WRs, 13% target share in 2025.

Carries a Questionable tag — usually plays, but monitor the final report.
CAR ranks 7 of 32 against WRs (one of the tougher matchups, 0-game sample).
Vegas implies 23.5 team points as 2.5-point favorites.
Listed WR-2 on the latest depth chart with a 40% snap share in 2025.

Head-to-head stats

Metric	Jameson Williams	Luther Burden III
Projected points	8.410.312.1	7.69.812.0
Consensus rank	WR26	WR28
Opponent vs position	NO · 10 of 320-game sample	CAR · 7 of 320-game sample
Receptions	6 of 32	8 of 32
Receiving Yards	7 of 32	8 of 32
Receiving TDs	14 of 32	5 of 32
Targets	6 of 32	8 of 32
Anytime TD	18 of 32	7 of 32
Target share	19%(2025)	13%(2025)
Reception share	17%(2025)	16%(2025)
Implied total · spread	27.8-7.0	23.5-2.5
Depth chart	WR2	WR2
Snap share	90%(2025)	40%(2025)
Injury designation	—	Questionable