Bo Nix: Start or Sit?

The call

• The 16.2 projection and QB16 consensus rank put Nix just outside the 12-team starter line — he's a fill-in, not a set-and-forget play.
• A 20.0 implied team total is the real drag: Denver isn't projected to clear the low 20s, which caps the passing-touchdown ceiling even with full-game volume.
• The DvP composite lists KC 9 of 32 (softest = 32), but it's a 0-game sample at 0.00 confidence, so treat the matchup read as noise rather than a hard downgrade.
• Tip factor: a 2.5-point deficit means dropback volume if Denver trails — if your alternative is a QB with a higher team total, sit Nix; if he's your best arm, the floor is playable.